In MM2005a,b,c, we observed that the RE statistic had no theoretical distribution. We noted that MBH had purported to establish a benchmark by simulations using AR1 red noise series with AR1=0.2, yielding a RE benchmark of 0. We originally observed that high RE statistics could be obtained from PC operations on red noise in MM2005a […]
Based on my limited experience, it seems to me that journal peer reviewing faces an interesting challenge with the increased use of Supplementary Information (and I absolutely endorse detailed SI and obviously encourage even more detailed SI). In a very non-random of articles that I know inside-out (Team journal publications), my conclusion is that, in […]
Most of my previous discussion of MBH pertained to the AD1400 network. In recent discussion over at Tamino, some of the posters have stated that BCPs only matter for the AD1400 network and that everything is fine for the AD1450 and later networks, relying here on statements in Wahl and Ammann 2007. (I don’t suppose […]
Update: As noted in the comments below, GISS updated the GLB.Ts+dSST anomalies which show a large 0.67 degC value for March. This addition of March 2008 temperature data to the record caused a corresponding drop in annual average temperature for the years 1946 and 1903. According to GISS, 1946 is now colder than 1960 and […]
Back in September when I was busy trying to figure out how Hansen combined station data, I was bothered by the fact that he used annual averages as the basis for combining scribal records (via the “bias method”) rather than monthly averages, which are readily available in the records that he uses. In my thinking, […]
RealClimate has a good discussion of problems with Loehle 2007: link, linking to JEG’s discussion but not to discussion here. Update: Lubo has a discussion here. In some cases, RC non-linking to climateaudit is mere pettiness, but, in this particular case, they cite information on Loehle that was initially made available at climateaudit. In this […]
Crowley and Lowery (2000) still cited quite often purported to show that the MWP was a dog’s breakfast of odds and ends – very different from the Modern Warm Period. The “proof” was the presentation of a hodge podge of proxies, which supposedly did not show a MWP, but did show a Modern Warm Period. […]
One of Loehle’s proxies – the one that ends in the 16th century – has occasioned some interest and I took some time to investigate it. It is an alkenone SST estimate from ocean sediment core MD95-2011 from the Norwegian Sea (66 58.19N, 07 38.36E and 1048 m). The series ends in the 16th century […]
Judith Curry and JEG have expressed an interest in talking about Mann et al 2007, Robustness of proxy-based climate field reconstruction methods, JGR pdf. This is successor article to Mann et al, 2005, Testing the Fidelity of Methods Used in Proxy-Based Reconstructions of Past Climate, pdf. Looking past the annoying and amusing faults, here are some […]
Ross McKitrick writes: First, on page 15, they say: This result (as well as the separate study by Wahl and Ammann [2007]) thus refutes the previously made claim by MM05 that the features of the MBH98 reconstruction are somehow an artifact arising from the use of PC summaries to represent proxy data. Well, if we […]
Climate Audit 