The Team have snarled back at Wegman here . They’ve posted up an August 16, 2006 letter from David Ritson to Waxman, accusing Wegman of not responding with a request for information that had been outstanding for almost 3 weeks (?!?) . Yes, you read it right. Jeez, I’ve been waiting almost three years for […]
One of the Kevins has drawn Appendix A “Statistical Issues Regarding Trends” in the recent USCCSP report "Temperature Trends in the Lower Atmosphere" to my attention. The appendix is coauthored by the omnipresent Wigley.
Jean S has sent the following longer contribution on Rutherford et al 2005. I always appreciate Jean S’s thoughtful comments (which is no secret to readers here). So enjoy. JeanS: Now since the review of Burger and Cubash [BC06 here after] put Rutherford (2005) [R05] back on the table, there is an issue to which […]
I hope that you are following the lively discussion about Burger and Cubasch at Climates of the Past here , where Mann aka Anonymous Referee #2 is carrying on in a quite extraodinary way. I’ll probably try to weigh in over there at some point. The dialogue has exploded fairly quickly and I’ve collated some […]
RegEM has reared its ugly head again in Mann’s review of Burger and Cubasch.
Von Storch et al 2004 advocated using climate models to generate pseudoproxies to test the properties of proposed multivariate methods. Hardly unreasonable. I might argue that these are long-winded ways of generating proxy series with certain kinds of temporal and spatial covariance structures, but there’s much to be said for testing methods on some standard […]
By Stephen McIntyre
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Also posted in Multivariate, RegEM
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Tagged mixed effects, multivariate, nlme, overfitting, pseudoproxy, r2, random effects, ridge, stone, stone and brooks, storch, von storch, zorita
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The NAS Panel notes the following about several statistics used in proxy studies: If are the predictions from a linear regression of on the proxies, and the period of interest is the calibration period, then RE, CE, and are all equal. Here’s a result about MBH methods (and applicable to related methods with re-scaling) that […]
Interesting title, no? What if I added Principal Components to this odd concatenation of concepts? Galluccio et al 1998 published a paper with the above title here, which has led to a number of follow-ups, which you can locate by googling. I’ll try to summarize Galluccio’s basic idea and then tie it back into principal […]
One bit of housekeeping that I want to tidy up before more NAS postings: a couple of months ago, Eduardo Zorita kindly sent me comprehensive data from ECHO-G, on which, unfortunately, I’ve so far not been able to spend as much time on so far as I would have liked. So much to do, so […]
A few days ago, I mentioned that I thought that Bürger et al 2006, while recognizing the linear relationship between MBH proxies and their RPCs, had incorrectly formulated the form of the relationship as the form of the linear relationship was inconsistent with my own derivation, which I had cross-checked and verified against source code […]
Climate Audit 
USCCSP: Temperature Trends in the Lower Atmosphere
One of the Kevins has drawn Appendix A “Statistical Issues Regarding Trends” in the recent USCCSP report "Temperature Trends in the Lower Atmosphere" to my attention. The appendix is coauthored by the omnipresent Wigley.